In detail the spending would increase by 0

A recovery without tone. "In his memo on the economy published last night, Insee expects growth so low for the beginning of the year 2010 that one wonders if the end of recovery is justified yet. The Statistical Institute has lowered its forecast of growth of GDP for the first quarter to 0.2 and not more 0.4 as mentioned in December. It would be followed by a (unchanged) progression of 0.3 in the following quarter.

"The recovery continues, explains Sandrine Duchêne, head of the Department of the State of the Insee.". Economic climate tends to falter in recent months, reflecting a lack of relapse of activity but not free acceleration no longer. "Moreover,"private demand, which is the key to a sustainable and autonomous recovery, barely to strengthen ".

Pendulum movement

The rally in the fourth quarter of 2009 should therefore have been of short duration. If the French growth ( 0.6) was more vigorous in the euro area, it would now be in the Middle until the summer. "This diagnosis is not very far from our scenario of recovery in corrugated pen", it indicates to Bercy. Two main factors explain this settlement. On the one hand, the rebound in the fourth quarter was, for a large part in a "technical" effect related to the movement of stocks. This effect should almost play until the summer, said Insee.

On the other hand, household consumption had strongly advanced end of 2009, driven by sales of motor vehicles. The French wanted to benefit from advantageous conditions of the premium case prior to its reduction to January 1, even anticipating their purchases.

Past this date, there is a strong backlash effect. This pendulum movement materialized as early as January (with a decrease of 2.5 of the manufacturing consumption), it is confirmed in February (1.2, the Insee announced yesterday) and expected to continue through the second quarter. "The household consumption globally flat in the first half of 2010", warns the Insee.

A hard blow to the traditional engine of the economy (accounting for more than half of the GDP), which had rather resilient during the crisis. In detail, the spending would increase by 0.1 in the first quarter (the rebound of cold-related energy consumption reducing the fucking of the purchases of cars) and then decrease of 0.2 in the second quarter. "Sees no clear sign of dropping out of the basement of consumption, procrastinating on nevertheless to Bercy.". If you exclude the automobile and energy, the other posts are resistant well.

Increase moderate unemployment

Rest, said Insee, the consumer will be "weakened by the weakness of purchasing power of earnings", which all would be spared in the second quarter by precautionary face, including rising unemployment. It should continue to increase moderately, from 9.6 in the fourth quarter 2009 with 9.8 mid-2010 in metropolitan France (10.2 with the DOM), dating back to its 1999 level.

In the end, growth would benefit from a very minor contribution from exports, the dynamism of international trade remaining relative (read below), but also of a resumption of investment firms from the second quarter ( 0.6), boosting these projects undermined by the crisis "in relying on the gradual improvement of opportunities and conditions of financing". Insee beyond the summer forecast, growth would be 1 for the whole of the year if the second half should be stable.

The Government and the consensus of economists expect growth of GDP by 1.4 for 2010. If its the first half projections are correct, the Insee calculates that should be a growth of 0.5 and 0.6 quarter on the second part of the year to achieve this goal. A sacred challenge.