928 people in 76 countries and 163 deaths

The H1N1 influenza virus, appeared at the Mexico in April, continues its progress in the world. According to the last balance sheet of the World Health Organization (who), which declared officially last week the State of pandemic, this swine flu renamed A, has already infected 35.928 people in 76 countries and 163 deaths. In the southern hemisphere, experts expect an explosion of its spread with the harshness of the austral winter. In the northern hemisphere, on the other hand, influenza should lose its vigor during the summer to reappear, as provided for all specialists, at the beginning of the fall, perhaps in a more virulent form.

The centre for forecasting and analysis Oxford Economics is delivered to the delicate exercise to assess the impact of this second wave on the world economy. All the more difficult exercise, if it is known that the H1N1 strain will reappear September, nothing is known on the other hand on seasonal influenza virus, whereas toward November. Be classical or recombinant with a H1N1 reinforced by its passage in the southern hemisphere Assuming the worst of an explosive combination between this very contagious but little deadly virus and the avian flu, H5N1, much more lethal.

Oxford Economics is based on the current criteria of the H1N1 strain, namely a 30 infection rate and a mortality rate of 0.4 (even though, in several affected countries, it varies between 2 and 5) and gambled on a period of six months of the pandemic. In these circumstances, it considers total its cost to 2,500 billion or 3.5 of global GDP.

To arrive at this figure, the Institute includes all types of possible costs: employees working more because sick (or deceased), tourism or restoration sectors affected for fear of contagion, investment postponed given the economic uncertainty will also weigh on the financial markets and will result in an increase in interest rates.

This scenario on the assumption that the second wave will start in the United States, which will be more affected than other developed countries with a decline of almost 5 of their GDP 2009, compared to 3 in the euro zone and Britain.

Collapse of demand

But Oxford Economics, this is not the most serious. "Even if in principle the world can overcome the pandemic, there is a significant risk that it raises a series of negative factors that are plunging the world in deflation", write the authors of the note. Why Because this second wave comes just at the moment where the planet should begin to overcome the crisis, and probably at Christmas, traditional peak consumption. Or flu will cause a collapse of demand in several sectors (including as tourism), encourage households to save, more still pushing prices down and threatening businesses already difficult point. A series of factors that could prevent the economy from recovering its normal activity at the end of the pandemic and have it enter a vicious circle which would "delay out of the crisis of two years. Be not until mid-2011.

A black scenario that everyone does not share necessarily. Margaret Chan, Director of the who, fears above all, it, that the current pandemic puts down health services in poor countries. "The challenge posed by a pandemic, added to the increase of chronic diseases, could only make inoperative already fragile health services" in developing countries, fears.