Let me recall that the France has reduced

A year ago exactly, you feel that the crisis would continue in 2009 and beyond. Do you see everything well today crab-wise a recovery

Even if it's going better, the crisis continues. With the exception of the Brazil, China and the India, 2009 was, as I anticipated, a year of recession for all. We have down three steps in France in 2009 and we expect to rise in 2010. And what we find today, is that, for industrialized countries, this activity gap is probably lost. It will take time to regain previous levels of activity. Across the slope of growth is currently very low: in France, we hesitate to know if there will be 1 or 1.3 growth this year. But 0.3 point of GDP, it is a day of production!

You do not believe the rebound

We are in the stabilization of the economies. This stabilization has been achieved - I remind you - through massive infusions, both monetary budgetary. These infusions have fortunately allowed avert systemic crisis. They explain today between two thirds and three quarters of the growth registered in the industrialized countries. The Keynesian multiplier is definitely what it was! The real issue of the year 2010 is when and to what extent it will change the dosage of these infusions. Because it is obvious that a rise in the rate of Central Bank intervention and/or a contraction of deficits would result in a new slowdown of activity. But monetary and fiscal policies continued also active can result in very damaging consequences, such as the return of inflation and brutal upwelling of interest rates... that would stop the recovery. All public authorities and all central banks face this dilemma. The way in which it will decide will depend on the profile of global economic activity in 2010-2011.

Asia also saw under infusion...

Gaps between countries deepens: more than 14 points of growth between the China of the Germany in 2009! Asia, which had a development exocentré, the refocused today, now using the domestic savings to its internal development. Asia continues to accumulate both in terms of productive capacity and public facilities and infrastructure. And many countries in Asia have a trade surplus. Asian countries strengthen now all their economic and financial relations. The case of the Japan is iconic, it turns us into China, the Korea, the Viet Nam... Term, Asia could choose identical to that made by European countries in the aftermath of the war and build a genuine free trade area, or even a single market, possibly consider a monetary zone. It's wonderful to see how Asia is saying that his future is in a more integrated regional area oriented towards the accumulation, the development of advanced technologies... We are witnessing a great uncorrelated to the world. At the end of the crisis, the relative economic positions of the various countries will be redistributed. It is a historical movement of nature "braudelienne" that nothing seems to stop.

And we will be the victims

It is an Act: the accumulation in all its forms governs always long-term fates. For the moment, Asia, including the India, but also the Brazil lead the movement. This is not a coincidence that the next universal exhibition will be held in Shanghai in 2010, while it was Paris in 1900. The crisis, a number have acquired a world freedom of the city, be welcome: the crisis gave birth G20 in November 2008 when there was before the G7 1. At Pittsburgh, Lula and Hu Jintao have played a leading role. I maintain that the sustainable outcome of the crisis through the establishment of new institutions of management, regulation of the global economy. The crisis made aware of this need. But childbirth is obviously not without pain! Globalization, at the European level, we will force to sooner or later a European Government as proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy in November 2008, idea that Luis Zapatero has resumed recently. The stakes of this reorganization of the world are immense: it up to us to be artisans... or the victims.

What are the lessons of this crisis for companies

The crisis should change many things in the management of companies. It places the role of the own funds and strategic capital and devalues the leverage effect. It restores the importance to early cash management and liquidity management. It pushes companies to take responsibility for the assessment of any consideration. It forces to reconsider the commitment and off-balance sheet operations. It will lead to enhancing the flexibility of organizations and contracts. It rehabilitates both diversification of clients and suppliers. Incentives to detect pockets of growth anywhere in the world. Finally, it should lead to review standards for profitability sector by sector.

Is the crisis over for the financial sector

I do not now have concerns on the solvency of the financial system. He has known a year an incredible evolution. Almost all of the banks have to recapitalise, some are passed under public control. The management has changed almost everywhere except in a few banks that have resisted well. Around the world, the crisis has discriminated against financial institutions between losers

and winners. The financial earthquake, of very high intensity, recomposed the global banking landscape. I would like to say that I consider that better management of the banking crisis was made by the French public authorities, in connection with the ECB.

What are the threats for 2010

The first threat is that the monetary support turns into inflation. Central banks must reach to sterilize a good part of the monetary creation due to the crisis in a scenario which avoids inflationary or relapse of the activity. The second threat is that of a crash bond a crisis of confidence in the quality of the signature by the States if debt becomes uncontrollable. The real challenge for States is to remain credible in their ability to restore public finances without taxes... Increase the compulsory would threaten the recovery. The output of crisis management is a real political choice, with only narrow path. Add the third years of crisis are historically the most difficult to manage: the first year, the crisis takes by surprise; the second year, it takes emergency measures; but the third year becomes very hard. The players are tired, social tensions to sharpen, and populism facing.

What may be the economic response

There are two types of savings: savings and capital accumulation, and the economies of debt and distribution. We go out of thirty years during which the economy of indebtedness and distribution was preferred in Europe. During these thirty years, we have forgotten the accumulation of assets and knowledge. Let me recall that the France has reduced... the State-funded working time! This choice has consequences on the growth potential of the country. To catch up with the delay, you have to roll up the sleeves! Institutional time is too slow, the pace of reforms must be accelerated. The discount rate should be lowered, national savings must be mobilized, the productive sector must be privileged.

Is Nicolas Sarkozy good reforms

30 Years of absence real reforms will not outgrow in two years! Our country is more adapted to the world that opens. Be all flat: universities, administrative organization, pensions, social protection... This will take time. To do so, everyone must be on the bridge, including businesses and employers.

Employers is disputed. It was quite this during the crisis

The patronat has a tribunicienne function: it expresses the point of view of producers, entrepreneurs. It is true that during this period, he was not alerted on the advent of the crisis, it was not enough voice to explain it, saying its consequences and its issues. He should participate more actively in the debates on the crisis management, and be more a force of proposal.

The Medef is prey to internal and external challenges, with the resignations of an important Federation and of the Director General of Laurence Parisot, plus direct criticism of Alain Minc. What are the reasons

The crisis is difficult for all organizations. Many companies have had to adapt in depth to the crisis. The time is come that the organization that represents is the same approach.

Should be a "social Refoundation" as you have done it 10 years ago

Unfortunately finding 12 years ago is still perfectly valid. The implementation of this fundamental project ran to traditional strengths. I keep plugged hope in the body that reformers outweigh all conservatives!

Are you always ready the ambition to be tried by the Presidency of the Medef, where an election within six months.

I joined the CNPF in 1991, and participated in the Medef from 1998 to 2002: I am not a perdreau of the year. I know the ups and downs. I am not a candidate, but I continue to be passionate about the role of business in French society at a time of intense change. It may be lover not musician. I am the head of a global enterprise which I am devoted. Give me really good reason that I again plays a role in the business!

Do you always take pleasure at the head of SCOR

Reinsurance is a fabulous job. The pandemic, pensions, climate change, terrorism, the wave of cold, air crashes all these issues concern reinsurance. We are in permanent alert of what is happening in the world.

You say well through the crisis. Are you going to participate in the consolidation of the sector

The reinsurance sector is already highly concentrated: there are more than 2 reinsurers French there where there were still 14 20 years ago. In 2009, we have had a very good endogenous growth and have strengthened our solvency.

What are you doing the cash that you have accumulated in recent years

We have invested it in indexed bonds, corporate bonds, real estate. We a little income money market shares, but unless we would like because of the so-called rules of Solvency II. It leads us today to buy State bonds, while caution should spur us to acquire shares or real estate to protect us against a return of inflation.