Watches and accessories would stand better

Deletions of posts in luxury... This is almost never-seen. But with the crisis, even this sector very carrier long is to tighten the bolts. The American jeweler Tiffany proposes to 800 employees take early retirement, he announced yesterday, after a contraction of 9 of its third-quarter sales in the United States. Her rival, Bulgari, the third most important jeweler in the world, confirmed, meanwhile, a decrease in "inevitable" its profits in 2008. Its quarterly net income has already fallen to 44. "We want to reduce our costs without negatively affecting the image of the company," said Francesco Trapani, the pattern of the Italian jeweler. While a few months ago we were focused on growth, this is more a priority, except for two or three markets, like China.

Twenty days of Christmas, a time key for the champagne, perfume and other luxury products, professionals are the maximum. But the holidays are not enough to counter the current slowdown. In the third quarter, the growth of the eight major rated players in the sector already fell to 5.7 at constant exchange rate, its lowest level since mid-2003, according to figures released yesterday by the analysts of Afrifocus (JSE Securities). This quarter, sales are expected to decline by 5.

Objectives reviewed downward

In 2009, the global market should know its first recession for six years, with a decrease of approximately 3. Clothing, jewellery and perfumes should particularly be affected. Watches and accessories would stand better.

All brands are not hoarded in the same fashion. Roberto D'incau, consultant with Hudson, believes that "the superluxe be unaffected, while more accessible products will be affected by changes in consumption patterns." "The claws which play on the quality and give real added value will less suffer." Hermès, Chanel, Gucci Group (PPR) or Vuitton (LVMH) should thus take the shock, while brands such as Burberry or Coach may be most affected.

What prevents not the greatest feel the cold call. Hermes has revised downward its 2008 objectives. Compared to 12, the group put on a growth of 9 to 10 at constant exchange rates. LVMH (owner of the "voices"), he recorded a net slowdown in the third quarter, with an increase of its turnover limited to 6 at constant exchange rates, compared to 12 in the second quarter. Gucci Group (Bottega Venetta, Yves Saint Laurent, Boucheron...) has also seen its progress divided by two.

"We have strong brands and a balanced portfolio in terms of products and countries, nevertheless assure Gucci." While purchases will be more selective, our claws will resist because they fit in time. "At the example of Bottega Venetta, whose fame relies on its leather woven hand bags sold around 3.600 euros for a classic model. And much more for special orders from end of year, as this Green bags in crocodile, with a double weaving, to approximately 40,000 euros.

Deemed positive effects

LVMH (Dior, Vuitton, Moet-Hennessy...), to be present on many sectors alcohols, perfumes, watches or fashion is "a force, because they have not all the same cycles, or the same geographical distribution, which will cushion the impact of the crisis." "We are confident that we will leave reinforced," said the leadership of the world leader of luxury. In addition, the financial structure of the company, with a low debt and cash, should be allowed to continue its "strategic investments", even if its competitors expect that reduce 20 of its advertising budget.

Paradoxically, the crisis could also have found positive effects. "It should encourage the industry of perfumes to stop multiple ephemeral product launches, to focus on actual innovations, said Karen Grant, specialist in NDP sector in the United States. Between 1970 and 1989, there have been fewer launches in one year now. "Stanislassia Klein, claw designer Stella Cadente, is on the same wavelength: it predicts the end of the marketing." "Should return to the true values, a new process of reflection in relation to the creation will be put in place".