The Carteret in Papua New Guinea has already begun

Pests of the excess of CO2 in the atmosphere are already there: not less than 250 million women, men and children are affected each year by tsunamis, cyclones or other less sudden forms of climate-related disasters, including the waters rise or desertification of certain regions. Under the effect of such disasters, the poor often have no choice but to flee, at least temporarily. But how to enable these populations to live elsewhere in decent conditions Since the 1951 Geneva convention, it is a political refugee status, but that is the fate of environmental migrants It is for answering this question that I asked the strategic analysis Centre to conduct a prospective study on what could be the status of climate refugees.

The great rendez-vous of Copenhagen mentioned these issues but without real perspective to address them. Lack of legal status, these climate refugees are likely to be marginalized into the mainstream of the international community. According to the Stern report, 200 million people - or a person on 45 - could qualify as environmental migrants by 2050.

The most affected regions are Africa, Sahel, Horn of Africa, Central Africa, Central Asia, South and South-East, Central America and the western part of South America. But the small island developing States whose existence is today the most endangered. The Carteret in Papua New Guinea has already begun. The coastal cities of all countries of the world, such as those of the highly populated Bay of Bengal, will be strongly affected by rising waters. Some populations are today able to adopt strategies to prevent climate change, adapt and organize assistance to populations. But others, on the other hand, far more vulnerable, can hedge against these scourges, under go. A study of the Programme of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), has shown that in the United States it has 93 times more climate-related disasters as in Bangladesh, but 34 times less than dead. If the impact food and health of these phenomena are well-known, are less often evokes the effects of climate change on social cohesion and security of the countries most affected. The current crisis in Darfur or in the Sahelian West demonstrate the validity of this link: due to increasing drought, farmers in the North of the Sahel in effect migrated south area already occupied by farmers, causing conflict and destruction of livestock and farms. Moreover, the lack of water, food insecurity, degradation of the Earth tend to worsen relations between people and their authorities in countries already affected by poverty and governance weaknesses.

Despite these findings, environmental migrants can claim the right of asylum or refugee status. Only the plan of action for the twenty-first century (Agenda 21), adopted at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, refers about the fight against desertification. To push Governments to recognize the phenomenon, many NGOs, such as Christian Aid or Alofa Tuvalu, very active, have published reports of alert. Ambitious proposals are made to build a full legal status for environmental migrants, this is the case for example of the draft convention relating to the status of displaced persons environmental of the University of Limoges.

Some argue that environmental migrants actually meet the criteria of the Geneva convention of 1951 on the refugees. Others argue for its revision to include the concept of "ecological persecution." The development of the guiding principles on the internally displaced people, the creation of a refugee status green in a new international agreement on measurement, the availability of a new migration visa or the implementation of bilateral agreements are some of the other alternatives.

But, beyond these general Outlook, since environmental migration will mostly remain an internal phenomenon in large continents, I have the conviction that the role of regional organizations and the regional development banks could be decisive. A country like Benin, for example, takes advantage of his membership in various regional organizations, such as economic and Monetary Union West-African, to multiply its sources of funding and its cooperation for development. This approach extended to environmental issues, could foster a differentiation of the obligations and duties between States according to their capacities and their vulnerability.

Will the future post-Kyoto Treaty take into account the question of the legal status of environmental migrants Either must find solutions to the case by case, depending on the region This essential question is now being considered in single pane "adaptation to climate change" so-called negotiations "post-2012". Evidence is needed: this framework is too narrow for a problem of this size.